What will be the ruble exchange rate in January

The ruble failed to show a steady movement at the end of the year: several significant drawdowns were bought out. Many feared weaker dynamics of the Russian currency due to the seasonal factor. Probably, its negative impact on the ruble was smoothed by tight monetary conditions, as well as strengthened currency control. January competes with December for the title of statistically the most unfavorable month for the Russian currency. However, taking into account that it has coped with the pressure of the factors inherent in the end of the year, in the short-term horizon it is likely to maintain multidirectional dynamics of quotations in the range of the last few months. The Chinese yuan on the world market in December managed to return to strengthening, having renewed the semi-annual top against the dollar. This allowed the Chinese currency in the pair with the ruble to retain some of the gains of the month. At the same time, the CNY/RUB pair permanently retains the leadership in trading turnover among other currency pairs.


In early December, the ruble was actively depreciating: the dollar exceeded 93.5 rubles, but then this impulse was completely leveled. In the middle of the month, the Russian currency resumed its weakening, but in the last sessions of the outgoing year it regained almost all the losses of December against the dollar against the background of its active decline on the world market. Despite the fact that at the end of the year there is traditionally an increase in demand for imports due to a surge in spending by the public and private sectors, the ruble avoided a steady downward trend. This was facilitated by the high key rate, which cools down consumer activity. In addition, the large obligations of exporters to return and sell foreign currency proceeds, introduced in October, act as an additional stabilizing factor for the ruble. In January, according to statistics, the ruble also performed worse than in December. This is usually a consequence of the inertia of the dynamics of the end of the year, as well as the reduced liquidity of the beginning of the new year.

But since this month the ruble kept from such a trend, it is possible that multidirectional movements will continue in January, if key factors do not change significantly.Yuan retains the status of the most liquid currency on the Russian market. The trading volume of CNY/RUB TOM pair often exceeds the combined indicator of USD/RUB and EUR/RUB TOM. In addition to the increase in the share of the Chinese currency in the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, this is due to the growing concerns of many market participants about possible restrictions on transactions with currencies of unfriendly countries.


Oil prices actively declined in the first half of December, but then switched to a rapid recovery. However, the month ends on a minor note. The oil market remains under the opposite influence of two key factors: the threat of worsening problems of the global economy, as well as the still high geopolitical risks. Despite the fact that the prevailing conditions in the economies of major countries are pushing central banks to soften monetary policy, such a step may turn out to be late and ineffective. As a result, further weakening of global economic growth will hit commodity demand. As oil quotations have been at relatively low levels in recent months, as have the prices of other commodities in Russia's exports, this is gradually reducing export revenues with a time lag. In addition, the Urals discount to Brent is widening again due to the Western countries' desire to tighten control over the price ceiling of Russian oil. Therefore, the raw materials factor is capable of increasing pressure on the ruble exchange rate in January.